The Economic Model
is designed to portend changes in the direction of the
US economy six to nine months in advance of a turning point.
It is not a stock market timing tool. Note that the Model
has been signaling an economic expansion since November 2008
about six months before GDP bottomed. Overall, readings have
strengthened, signaling the economic recovery will continue
at a modest pace constrained by slow job growth, depressed housing
conditions, high gasoline prices, and uncertainties regarding
US fiscal policies.